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Sunday, 26 February 2012
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Myra Macdonald makes one claim that deserves correction: she says that if the Americans stay in Afghanistan, they lose, and if they get out, they lose.

That's not quite true. If they get out, they will not have lost, but have cut their losses. And if Afghanistan reverts to hell-hole Islamic type, that is when the only thing that can properly be defined as "victory" can begin. It requires an American withdrawal for the losses to end, the gains to start.

And now, into the dead end in Afghanistan

February 27, 2012 @ 1:23 am

By Myra MacDonald

[1]When the history of the Afghan war is written, the protests over the burning of copies of the Koran [2] will certainly be defined as a watershed. What remains to be seen is whether they become the moment the United States lost the war, or rather, when America lost patience.

The anger of Afghans is evident, whether it be over the sense of religious insult [3] or the sheer frustration [4]with a war that has gone on too long and yielded too  little.

Less evident, but perceptible and equally important, however, is the American response. “2014 cannot come fast enough,” was one comment on Twitter about the date when the United States and its allies are meant to hand over control of security to Afghan forces.

“It’s reasonable to wonder what we have gotten out of more than a decade of investment-including 1901 US and 2901 total NATO Coalition deaths [5]-in an effort to forge, as President Obama put it in his speech at West Point [6], a “partnership with Afghanistan grounded in mutual respect – to isolate those who destroy; to strengthen those who build; to hasten the day when our troops will leave; and to forge a lasting friendship in which America is your partner, and never your patron,” wrote James Joyner at the Atlantic Council [7]. “Aside from hastening the day when our troops leave, none of those goals seem any closer than they were in 2001.”

Contrast that with the reaction to last September’s assault on the U.S. embassy on Kabul [8], which was erroneously compared to the Tet offensive [9], when Vietnamese insurgents attacked the U.S. embassy in Saigon 1968 and convinced the American public that – although the attack was defeated - the war was lost.  Last year, the attack on the embassy in Kabul was blamed on Pakistan [10].  This year, while that accusation stands [11], the protests over the burning of the Koran are delivering the more authentic message of the Tet offensive – that wars are lost on the home front of public opinion more often than they are on the battlefield.

Andrew Exum from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) summed it up best in his complaint on Twitter [12] that Afghan President Hamid Karzai had appeared to take sides with the protesters against the Americans. “In a reversal, with each passing day, Karzai needs U.S. troops in Afghanistan beyond 2014 more than the U.S. does. Does he realize that?” he wrote. “The U.S. has interests in Afghanistan, but surely Karzai sees how they have become less and less important for the U.S. government & public.”

Yet stop for a moment and consider how this jars with U.S. strategy in Afghanistan. Along with its allies, the U.S. aim is to build up Afghan security forces to the point where they can hold their own [13] against an insurgency after 2014, with or without a peace deal with the Taliban [14].  The sequencing in the rather confusing U.S. mantra [15] of “fight, talk and build” requires an ability to project enough power - or at least pretend to do so - that the Taliban might find they have more to gain from negotiating a settlement [16] while U.S. troops are still in Afghanistan than by fighting their way to Kabul in a civil war.

Do also remember that the U.S. strategy, not too long ago described in the “AfPak” five-letter word [17], was clear that American success in Afghanistan was meant to encourage Pakistan to challenge its own Islamist militants. Yet Pakistan is more fragile than ever. Aside from its many economic and security problems, it is fighting a separatist revolt in Balochistan; its army is driven by a perceived threat from both Afghanistan and India - neither of whom have recognised its borders; and its heartland Punjab province is playing host to  a new and powerful Islamist/jihadi alliance [18]  whose primary slogan is “Go America Go.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. strategy is, and has always been, internally inconsistent. At one level it wants to retain military bases in Afghanistan after 2014, which could be used for drone strikes and other military operations against Pakistan where many of the Islamist militants are based. [this is an impossible thing -- it will never happen, and those who keep thinking it will happen have overlooked not only Iraq, but the history of American bases elsewhere, in Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and soon, perhaps, in Bahrain and other sheikdoms].Yet it needs Pakistani endorsement for a deal with Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, whose support is required to bring the rest of the movement on board and who is, despite Pakistani official denials, believed to be living in an Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) safe house, most likely in Karachi.

In short, however inconsistent the strategy, it has depended on bluff. And that bluff is weakening.

I am increasingly reminded of the words of one western official speaking last year on Afghanistan: ”We stay we lose, we leave we lose.”  But I am also, troublingly, reminded of something else – the projection of power that the British used in India for 200 years to maintain the rule of the very small minority over the majority.  That legacy left deep scars in South Asia and, with the hurried British departure in 1947, created all the worse pain for its sudden withdrawal. 

But if we were to define the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, it has depended – rightly or wrongly – on a projection of power. In its response to the Koran-burning protests, the United States just turned its two of clubs face upwards on the table. That demands attention.

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Posted on 02/26/2012 8:01 PM by Hugh Fitzgerald
Comments
26 Feb 2012
Send an emailjewdog

  No, our strategy needs to be based on peripheral, non-Islamic states. Otherwise, we just get twisted into knots, as this tortured article demonstrates.

 We need a much more extensive alliance with India, aimed at breaking up Pakistan and bringing the fight west to finally begin the process of reversing the Islamic conquests and reestablishing civilization.



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