Arab Spring and Future Scenarios

by Samir Yousif (January 2012)

The Arab Spring

While the entire Muslim world is in a path of increasing Islamization, the Iranian Revolution put the Iranian people ahead of the Arab masses by at least three decades. This is why it has been mentioned at the start of this paper. The Iranian people understand the consequences of regime-change. The Arabs have yet to learn.

Turkey, Qatar and Iran

Sunni-Muslim, has the opportunity to re-control its old Arab colonies. This Turkish re-control can take any form of political alliance between thee Muslim Middle East countries with Istanbul being the center of this new alliance.

Shiite Muslims (Imamyia and Ismailia), the Sunni Muslims and the Kurds. The Sunni Muslims represents the largest of all, and it is the source of the Muslim Brotherhood Movement and other Islamic Fundamentalists. The collapse of the Syrian regime will ignite a fierce civil war that will polarize the entire Middle East. It will not be incorrect to assume that the consequences of the collapse of the present Syrian regime will create two main axes. The first axis will represent the alliance of the Shiite Muslims that includes the Alawaya, Darouz and the Christians strongly supported by Iran, Iraq, and the Shia in Lebanon. While the other axis will include the Sunni Muslims supported mainly by Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Sunni of Lebanon, Al-Qaeda organization, and other Sunni countries. Neighboring countries like Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq have already started fearing the consequences of such a scenario.

The Growth of Islamism

The whole education system is re-written by Islamists with the purpose of brain-washing new generations.

  • People holding social gatherings and parties are continuously attacked by Islamists on the grounds that singing and music are forbidden in Islam and they are considered to be some form of Munker. This happens in a country like Tunisia (and Egypt, and other countries) where tourism represents one of its main sources of foreign reserves.
  • Satellite TV Stations are attacked and burnt for showing films that are not approved by the Islamists (as happened to Nasma TV in Tunisia recently).
  • Women are not allowed to attend interviews, go to work, travel, and generally go outdoors without a Male Mahram[7] (MM).
  • The Islamists require the establishment of strict censorship on all authorship to ensure that the ideas published do not contradict Sharia.
  • The establishment of Guidance Committees to control the behavior of people in the streets.

    • All of that put together will represents an end to personal freedoms and freedom of expression in the 21st century.

    The Islamists Dilemma

    Polarization of Religion and Options facing Israel

    [2] It is a grave mistake to put Iraq and Iran in one block although Iran has an important influence in Iraq. After the withdraw of the American troops, Iraq will start to exercise a specific and unique foreign policy as proof of its independent decisions. This foreign policy will be clearly different from the Iranian agenda.

    [4] This is very similar to what happened in Iraq after 2003, when the new Constitution gave men the right to marry more than one wife which came as a shock to Iraqi women.

    [6] See Sharia and the Origins of Violence, in Theoretical Foundations of Terrorism, January 2011.

    [7] Male Mahram is a man who cannot engage in sexual intercourse with the woman under consideration, like her brother or father.

    [8] See Theoretical Foundations of Terrorism, New English Review, January 2010.

    [9] See The Downfall of Political Islam, New English Review, December 2009.

    [11] This scenario assumes also an improved Israel-Palestinian relationship.

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