Did Defector Intel Change Trump’s Iran Strategy?
An Interview with Kenneth R. Timmerman
by Jerry Gordon and Rod Reuven Dovid Bryant (June 2019)
The U.S. Navy’s Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group includes guided-missile cruiser USS Leyte Gulf, and missile destroyers USS Bainbridge, USS Gonzalez (Source UPI)
As May ended, the US and Iran appeared “locked in a clash of wills” said Iran’s top military leader. President Trump threatened to bring about the ‘official end of Iran,’ if it threatens the US again.
briefed the ‘eight cardinals’ of the US Senate and House Leadership and Intelligence Committees on Iran escalation activities .
attacks on four tankers in the UAE port of Fujairah in the Persian Gulf. Houthi drones attacked Saudi pipelines and pumping stations. A Katyusha rocket, with a range of 25 miles found with Iranian markings on its tail fin, hit Baghdad’s ‘green zone’. It may have been launched by an Iran – controlled Iraqi Shi’ite Popular Mobilization militia. Hezbollah ordered its troops to be prepared to leave Syria and return to Lebanon for a ‘special mission’. There were reports that US intercepted orders by Iran to Hezbollah to attack Americans.
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Following, the Trump Administration abandonment of the Obama nuclear deal with Tehran, Iran has leveraged proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza by transferring missile and drone technology to engage in asymmetrical warfare against US assets and allies as pushback for imposition of severe economic sanctions. However, Iran cannot stand toe to toe with the vast power of the US military. That is exemplified in the redeployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea approaches to the Straits of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. There is concern in many quarters about an offer of a Russian S-400 system to Iraq. That would threaten air operations out of the strategic al-Asad air base with 5,200 US troops in Anbar province and Israeli F-35s flying missions in adjacent Syria. These Iraqi Shi’ite proxies of Iran may have been transferred longer distance missiles such as the Zelzal (which has a range of 250 km), the Fateh-110 (200-300 km) and Zolfaqar (700 km). These longer-range missiles equipped with large conventional warheads “would put Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh or Tel Aviv within striking distance if the weapons were deployed in southern or western Iraq”. Iran has effectively used relatively crude armed drones, that Hezbollah also possesses. Houthi rebels have used drones to attack Saudi pipelines and pumping stations from Yemen. Iran has both shore-based and fast boat mounted Chinese missiles that could attack US naval vessels.
deemed an “echo of the Iraq War”. It blamed National Security Adviser Bolton; a known advocate of regime change in Iran. There were rumors that the Pentagon may be planning to send upwards of 5,000 to 10,000 troops as force protection. Former Army Vice Chief of Staff, General Jack R. Keane characterized that possible deployment as an offense/defense option. Acting Secretary of Defense Edward Shanahan dismissed speculations about the possible deployment.
Former US Army intelligence officer Michael Pregent of the Hudson Institute proposed possible war plans that did not involve a land force invasion of Iran.
A Jerusalem Post analysis by Seth J. Frantzman of Pregent’s war fighting strategy noted:
Starting in Yemen, US allies – particularly the Saudis and Emiratis – could strike at the Houthis. In addition, America or its allies could strike at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps there.
If Americans are targeted in Iraq, the US could hit back at any of the Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias there.
If Tehran seeks to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz near the UAE, Washington might respond by striking Iranian naval assets linked to the IRGC. The US has already designated the IRGC a terrorist organization, so it could conceivably target any IRGC elements as “terrorists.”
The US can try to disrupt Iran’s “land bridge,” which includes Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria that link Iran to its Hezbollah ally. That might mean the US and Israel working together against Iran’s bases in Syria.
In another scenario, Iran might seek to construct a nuclear weapon using the uranium that it seeks to enrich. In this case, Pregent says that the US could hit undeclared nuclear sites that are outside the 2015 “Iran Deal.” A 72-hour air campaign would set back Iran’s nuclear program by a decade.
According to veteran Iran watcher and investigative journalist and author, Ken Timmerman this “clash of wills” between the US and Iran may have its origins in the defection of a high-ranking Revolutionary Guard intelligence chief. Timmerman noted in a Fox News report:
On April 19th an Iranian internet news agency disclosed that the Supreme Ruler ‘fired’ the head of IRGC intelligence General Ali Nasiri who was said to have defected with a trove of information and may have been given sanctuary in a US Embassy in one of the Gulf emirates. Gen. Nasiri is one of the highest Iranian defectors with knowledge of Iran’s nuclear programs, Quds Force operations with Shi’ite proxies in Iraq, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
We reached out to Ken Timmerman to explore the implications of the defection of this high ranking IRGC intelligence chief on the Trump Administration’s Middle East Strategy amidst speculation of an imminent conflict with Iran and its proxies.
Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran in 2005. In 2007, he blew the whistle with his book, Shadow Warriors, on the intelligence apparatus here in the United States who gave faulty data to our leaders. In his 2014 book, Dark Forces: The Truth about what happened in Benghazi , Timmerman revealed Iran’s involvement in the attack that took four American lives. In 2018 he wrote a novelistic treatment of the rise of the Islamic state in Iraq in ISIS Begins. Most importantly Ken is someone who knows how things operate in Iran. He has brought evidence of Iran’s machinations in the Middle East and elsewhere from two out of the three defectors who have given massive information about the Islamic Republic’s links to 9/11. He is fully conversant about the intentions and capabilities of Iran that he considers as the first Shi’ite Islamic state in 1979 decades before the rise of Sunni Salafist ISIS
Rod: What he is going to point out in this show is this regime declared war on the United States way back in 1979. That we have only rarely responded to that declaration. However, the current confrontation between the US and Iran now seems to be different. Jerry and I along with Ken Timmerman are going to explore what this latest defector, who was head of the Republican Guard Intelligence in Tehran, has revealed what is going on inside the Islamic Republic. We have important questions to talk about considering the latest news from the Mideast with the deployment of American assets in the region.
Ken: The Iranians are troubled. They feel the pressure. They feel the pain from the Trump administration’s sanctions. This is what Obama freed them from. Now those sanctions are being re-imposed. When the Iranians are wounded, they attack. This is typical of the Middle East and they are behaving as typical middle east players. They attempt to throw their adversary off balance, they attempt to make people believe that they are the strong horse when in fact they are the weak horse and we are the strong horse.
Jerry: What are the realistic geopolitical objectives of the Trump administration in confronting Iran by dusting off this war plan reported by the New York Times that called it, curiously enough, an “Echo of the Iraq War”. Is it protection of U.S. allies Persian Gulf oil production? Is it disruption of renewed nuclear enrichment or is it fostering regime change or is it all of the above?
Rod: Ken, I wish we had the statistics that show the number of casualties there have been as a direct result of this war begun by Iran that we have not been participating in. I think of the three hundred Marines killed in Beirut. You could go back to the time when the Delta Force was in Qatar trying to liberate our prisoners. I really think that if we were able to quantify that it would blow the minds of most people, especially the millennials who have no clue of how extensive this history is.
Ken: Let me give you a couple of additions to that list: the 241 Marines killed in Lebanon in 1983, 63 people killed in the Lebanon Embassy bombing in April of 1983, I was there when the Embassy was bombed. What about the war in Iraq?
We all get it—the United States, the Saudis, the Gulf allies and even Europe. By the way, that is why Secretary of State Pompeo made a side trip to Europe. Iran is behind these attacks and Iran is going to pay a price.
Rod: Do you think there was some direct intelligence the administration received that Iran was threatening U.S. allies and assets in the region that could have been fed from Mossad?
Rod: This is major—
Ken: I believe that is the case. I have worked with Iranian high-level defectors for many years. I have been personally involved in the defections of previous senior officials including a Deputy Minister of Defense, an official who was the head of the Revolution Guards networks in Lebanon. I was not involved in this one.
However, I read what is coming out in the public media and understand what is going on behind the scenes. This Iranian defector came out with stellar information and it immediately to a response by the President, by the Secretary of State, by the military re-deployment the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to the Persian Gulf. This is so unlike what happened during the Obama and Bush Administrations.
Rod: You had talked about the pressures being put on them and the fact that they had gotten some good direct information from a person who was a senior Iranian intelligence defector.
Jerry: Few even remember that. Do you think the Revolutionary Guard Navy small fast patrol boats can stop a juggernaut like the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battle Group?
Ken: Possibly yes. That is the new wrinkle. The Iranians have been practicing and co-developing with China a ground based ballistic missile which has been designed specifically to attack U.S. aircraft carriers. It does this with terminal guidance provided by an overflying aircraft, not an AWACS sophisticated aircraft, but some targeting aircraft that the Iranians and Chinese may have.
Jerry: Previously, you and I discussed how powerful is a carrier attack group with missile-equipped aircraft, cruisers, destroyers, frigates, and submarines. It has a virtual air wing on top and below decks. Given this Iranian anti-ship missile threat, perhaps, the wisest course of action would be for the USS Abraham Lincoln to stay off the Straits of Hormuz in the Sea of Arabia. The reason I say that is because an ally of the current administration in Washington has positioned its submarines off the same commercial ship channel, I am referring to Israel and its nuclear weapons-equipped Dolphin submarines.
Rod: We also must remember that we have considerable amount of air assets that are in bases in the region around Iran in Iraq and elsewhere.
Jerry: The US has a Navy facility and Air Force B-52 base at Diego Rivera in the Indian Ocean that was used during the Vietnam War.
Rod: We have an Air Base in Azerbaijan, Jordan and the Al-Asad base with 5,500 US troops in Western Iraq. You would think that Iran’s proxies in Iraq would hit those assets first with long range rockets and missiles.
Ken: Here is the thing. The Iranians are extraordinarily arrogant. They are sure that they could do great damage to us and that we will turn tail and run. I say this from knowledge the former head of the Revolutionary Guards was convinced that once they attacked us in Beirut in 1983 the United States turned tail and ran which was true.
We pulled our Marine forces out of Lebanon. How do I know this? Because the former head of the Revolutionary Guards’ son defected to the United States and lived in my basement for six months learning English from movies. This was one of the many stories that he told me about his father about the Revolutionary Guards. The current commander of the Revolutionary Guards Salami believes the same thing. They believe that if they hit us hard, we will retreat, we will not respond. They have not understood that Donald Trump is a different type of President that we have had before.
Rod: The advantage we have is that they are so arrogant that they honestly think that is who our Navy and our Armed Forces are really like. They are setting themselves up for a tremendous fall.
Jerry: I think what Ken is telling us is really stunning. This is not going to be like the 1987/88 Tanker War in the Persian Gulf, where the U.S. basically creamed Iran. In fact, we took over their offshore oil platforms. This possible conflict Ken said is ideologically driven. That the Iranian Shi’ites really think that the contract they signed with the 12th Imam will enable them to win.
Rod: That our response is going to be different than what it has been all the way back to 1979. This response is going to be a renewed approach to how we deal with Iran and its proxies.
Jerry: Ken, why did Secretary of State Pompeo go to Brussels and then on to Sochi to talk to Mr. Lavrov?
Rod: So, it is not because they are a highly patriotic loyal people to the regime, or they want to help deliver the nation out of the clutches out of a wicked regime. They are just leaving because they are saving their own necks.
Jerry: Ken, what are the realistic prospects if the U.S. has a conflict with the Iranian Islamic regime that somehow the magic switch will be pulled, and regime change could occur? I know that is the secret desire of Mr. Bolton, perhaps the secret desire of you and others who have been advocating for that. But realistically could there be regime change if there is a dust up?
Jerry: Ken, are these prospects going to affect what Israel does in the space of the next several weeks before a government is formed? Realize that Netanyahu has been given an extension for time to cobble together a working coalition. So, if something happens before the ruling coalition is formed what does Israel do?
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Rod: I hope that you are correct. I am also hoping that the information that you have provided today is going to show that the United States response to Iran is perhaps going to be a different response we have had in the last forty years. Ken, thank you so much for joining us. You have been listening to Beyond the Matrix and we will see you next time at this same place here on Israel News Talk Radio.
Listen to the original Israel News Talk Radio – Beyond the Matrix interview.
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Jerome B Gordon is a Senior Vice President of the New English Review and author of The West Speaks, NER Press 2012. Mr. Gordon is a former US Army intelligence officer who served during the Viet Nam era. He was the co-host and co-producer of weekly The Lisa Benson Show for National Security that aired out of KKNT960 in Phoenix Arizona from 2013 to 2016. He is co-host and co-producer of the Middle East Round Table periodic series on 1330amWEBY, Northwest Florida Talk Radio, Pensacola, Florida. He is producer and co-host for the weekly Israel News Talk Radio-Beyond the Matrix program that airs on-line out of Jerusalem.
Rod Reuven Dovid Bryant is the creator and host of the weekly Israel News Talk Radio-Beyond the Matrix that airs on-line out of Jerusalem. He is he Director of Education and Counseling for Netiv Center for Torah Study in Houston, Texas. He was a successful former Evangelical Christian minister, who advocates Torah-based principles for the non-Jew.
Follow NER on Twitter @NERIconoclast