Georgia: "Moscow Rules" and the West Wimps Out

by Jerry Gordon (Aug. 2008)

Dmitry Medvedev. This invasion had two objectives: squashing Georgia as an independent liberal democracy in the ‘near abroad’ and seizing control of the strategic


Left – Koba Liklikadze  RFE-RL correspondent in front of Russian tanks 40 Kms from Tiblisi, Georgia, August 15, 2008


 


As one analyst in a Christian Science Monitor report noted, this was a war about oil.

 


In the long-running struggle for control of Caspian oil and gas and influence in the ex-Soviet states of that region, the clash has been a blow to US clout.

Oil reserves underneath the Caspian Sea are believed to be huge, perhaps as much as 200 billion barrels. That compares with the estimated 260 billion barrels in Saudi Arabia.


With the a protest rally in Tblisi, the Georgian capital, Wednesday.


President Bush from his Crawford Ranch, with Secretary Rice at his side fresh from her trip to France and Georgia, put out a warning to Russian leaders as noted in this AP report:


Bush told reporters at his Texas ranch that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s signing Saturday of a cease-fire plan was an important development — “a hopeful step.”


RFE correspondent Koba was reporting live on the movement of seven Russian tanks 12 Kms east of the captured Georgian town of Gori-Stalin’s birthplace- less than 40 Kms from the Georgian capital of Tblisi. On this engrossing call were RFE President Jeffrey Gedman and Georgian Service director David Kakabadze reporting from Prague.  Watch this background briefing on the Russia- Georgia confrontation by RFE-RL Georgia Service director, Kakabadze,
My blogger colleague, Ann Lieberman of Boker Tov! Boulder had a telling report on the call with Koba and the RFE team, aptly entitled: “Russians control one TWO thirds of Georgia?” Read it here.


Lieberman reported on the RFE team’s response to a question I posed:


Jerry Gordon asked about the
Koba’s call from the field was filled with reports on the brutal Russian occupation, use of cluster bombs in Gori, looting by paramilitaries from the Northern Caucasus Islamic provinces, and the massive flight of refugees from Gori – 80% of the population fled. He noted the killing of four journalists last week during the Russian assault in South Ossetia. Koba told of a dramatic live reporting of a sniper attack on a Georgian woman TV journalist. He talked about Russian ‘hits’ against Czech and Turkish journalists stealing and trashing their gear. Koba saw no indication that Russian troops and tanks were withdrawing at the time of the bloggers call. In fact he reported movement forward deeper into Georgia. 

CIA Fact Book:

Investors Business Daily:

The trouble started when Europe balked at letting Georgia join NATO last spring. At the time, Saakashvili complained. Then, when Russian planes repeatedly violated Georgian airspace, he complained again. Though the signs were clear, he was ignored.


Clearly, the West lost this round in the petroleum wars with Russia over Georgia. The objective of establishing the BTC pipeline going back to the Clinton era was to foster competition in the world energy markets. The EU in particular, and many former Warsaw Pact countries, are vulnerable to the strong arm tactics of the KGB thugocracy in the Kremlin particularly with regard to natural gas deliveries.

The plan was to follow up the BTC pipeline with a parallel one that would deliver gas from the Caspian Basin via an extension through the Balkans to the EU. Now that prospective route may have been stifled by the Russian invasion of Georgia. Energy analyst Klare in the CSM report noted:


Such a pipeline would offer serious competition to Gazprom, the giant Russian oil-and-gas conglomerate. Russia supplies one-quarter of the oil and half the natural gas consumed in Europe, and the revenue is seen as key to Russian prosperity. The European Union has been keen on the Georgia plan as a way to gain bargaining power and reduce the risk of supply cutoffs.

But the Russia-Georgia war may have reduced the prospects for such a gas pipeline getting financing and European backing.


After this week, only a steel hand in a velvet glove by the US and NATO will achieve parity in the energy wars. Negotiating with the Russians, after what happened in Georgia this week, is just not in the cards.

To comment on this article, please click here.

To help New English Review continue to publish timely and informative articles like this one, please click here.

If you have enjoyed this article by Jerry Gordon and want to read more, please click here.

Jerry Gordon is a also regular contributor to our community blog. To read his entries, please click here.