Stalemate in the Middle East?
by Jerry Gordon and Mike Bates (April 2014)
With Shoshana Bryen and Dr. Daniel Mandel
Mike Bates in Jerusalem March 2014
seizure from the Ukraine and annexation of Crimea by Russian President Putin unsettling these agendas. Putin had formed an alliance with Shiite Allies, the Assad regime in Damascus and Iran. He is backing the former in the three year old civil war with weapons to thwart Sunni support from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates for rebel militias. Putin wants to stifle Sunni irredentism in the Southern Russian provinces of Chechnya and Dagestan. As American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Scholar, Michael Rubin observed, “Putin sees international relations as a zero-sum game in which for Russia to win, everyone else must lose.”
Israel is vitally concerned about the Iran threat with evidence unveiled on March 10th in the port of Eilat by PM Netanyahu. On display was a secreted cargo of Syrian made rockets, mortars and large caches of ammunition seized by Israeli Naval commandos from a Panamanian flagged cargo vessel, the Klos-C in the Red Sea off Port Sudan. He said:
scoffed at Netanyahu’s claims that these weapons were destined for terrorist proxies in Gaza. Netanyahu suggested that this was evidence to the world that Iran could not be trusted in any agreement that the P5+1 might possible conclude. Iran’s revolutionary guard on March 5th disclosed its alleged development of MIRV warheads for ballistic missiles that it successfully excluded from the negotiations agenda. EU Foreign Relations Commissioner Ashton after meeting in Tehran with Foreign Minister Zarif offered dour prospects of achieving any agreement calling an ultimate deal, “challenging.” There is no guarantee of an ultimate deal. P5+1 concluded the second round of discussions at the UN calling them “useful.” Notwithstanding Putin’s takeover of the Crimea from the Ukraine, the P5+1 will continue discussions in Vienna in April. 7th. There were also disclosures that Israel has set aside nearly $3 billion to finance a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities should an agreement fail to eventuate. At the AIPAC Annual Policy Conference on March 4th both US Sen. Bob Menendez and Israeli PM Netanyahu argued for passage of the standby sanctions legislation threatened by a Presidential veto. Virtually on the heels of Netanyahu’s Eilat press conference, on March 12th Iran’s proxy in Gaza, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad unleashed over 40 rockets against Southern Israel. Israel’s Air Force instantly retaliated against 29 suspected launching sites in Hamas-controlled Gaza. That gave rise to comments from Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman that perhaps it was time to retake Gaza. To which Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh said at a large rally in Gaza City on the 10th anniversary of the Israeli assassination of Hamas founder Sheik Yassin that Israel would pay “a very high price.” Israel’s Lebanese and Syrian borders were equally unsettled. The IDF shelled Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon following a bombing of an IDF patrol on the northern frontier triggered by another IAF attack against weapons convoys from Syria. On the Golan frontier with Syria, IAF sorties were made against Syrian army positions near Quneitra following a bombing of an IDF patrol. The IDF is also vigilant about al Qaeda militias penetrating the Golan.
diplomatic offensive seeking support for accession to statehood at the UN Security Council. The PA may also file a case against Israel for “crimes against humanity” before the International Criminal Court at The Hague. Nor is it clear, based on a Bloomberg interview with President Obama by journalist Jeffrey Goldberg that the US might not veto a PA statehood application at the UN Security council.
accusing the Obama Administration of being weak on Iran and questioning US commitments to Israel’s security. Ya’alon indicated that Israel cannot rely on the US to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and that it would likely have to do it alone. In January, Ya’alon had characterized Kerry’s role in trying to fashion a final status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians as “obsessive” and “messianic.” Kerry expressed strong disagreements with Ya’alon remarks in private phone conversations with Israeli PM Netanyahu. Ya’alon subsequently apologized, for the moment. There are indications that the Obama Administration had undertaken back channel discussions with coalition Finance Minister Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party, as a possible replacement for Netanyahu as PM in any future election. The Administration apparently failed to win over coalition cabinet member Justice Minister Tzipi Livni of the Hatnuah party, who is Israel’s lead negotiator in current peace discussions with the PA.
upset with Kerry and his team over security proposals for loss of IDF control of the Jordan valley approaches that have been proposed in any final status agreement. His government is concerned about a Palestinian state gaining access to the Kingdom of Jordan with a restive Palestinian majority.
jailed more than 16,000 Muslim Brotherhood (MB) members and is currently trying ousted President Morsi and other leaders in the fundamentalist Islamic movement. On March 23rd, Egyptian courts handed down death sentences to more than 529 MB members accused of murdering a police captain during riots in August 2013. This raised human rights concerns in the West which might lead to commutation of many of these sentences.
barred both Qatar and Turkey from attending a major Islamic Conference in Cairo during the final week in March. At the conclusion of a two day summit of the Arab League in Kuwait the group issued a statement rejecting Israel’s demand for recognition as a Jewish nation and accusing it on intransigence in the peace discussions. Their communiqué stated:
muzzling free speech and an independent judiciary. Erdogan has accused a former ally, ex-pat Sufi Sheikh Mohamed Fethulleh Gulen, living in eastern Pennsylvania, of fomenting a campaign against his regime. The weekend prior to the Turkish municipal elections Erdogan at a political rally announced the shooting down of a Syrian Mig-23 Fighter by a Turkish F-16 near a border crossing in Syria.
said, “One question will be whether elections in Turkey will any longer be free and fair?” On the split with Sheikh Gulen, he noted, “Autocrats don’t mind sharing power during the ascendency, but they’re loath to share power once they believe themselves at the top.”
Will There be a Peace Agreement between Israel and the Palestinians? An Interview with Daniel Mandel (November 2013).
Mike Bates: Good afternoon and welcome to Your Turn. This is Mike Bates and we are having one of our periodic special edition round table discussions about the Middle East. Joining us in the studio is Jerry Gordon, Senior Editor of the New English Review and its blog the Iconoclast. Jerry Gordon is also the author of The West Speaks. Jerry, welcome to Your Turn.
Jerry Gordon: Glad to be back.
Shoshana Bryen: Thank you.
Daniel Mandel: Thank you very much.
Shoshana, speaking about somebody next door to this problem, King Abdullah, why is he particularly nervous about the security arrangements in the Jordan Valley that Secretary Kerry and his advisors have been discussing regarding final status negotiations?
said this week that Iran violated UN sanctions on procurement for both its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Segment 1, Segment 2, Segment 3, Segment 4.
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The West Speaks.
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