The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Pandora’s Box

an interview with Omri Ceren and Shoshana Bryen
by Jerry Gordon and Mike Bates (August 2015)

Source: WSJ.com/Getty Images

Tuesday morning, July 14, 2015, the P5+1 announced in Vienna, Austria the culmination of two years of negotiations among world powers and the Islamic Republic of Iran: a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The framework for this 159 page document, including five annexes, was approved by the parties on April 2, 2015. An original JPOA of action was agreed to on November 24, 2013 at Geneva. The US negotiating team was lead by Secretary of State John Kerry, assisted by Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.

The President issued a brief statement calling it “an historic deal” that would cut off Iran from four pathways to achieve a nuclear breakthrough. Which in the absence of the proposed deal might result in producing upwards of 12 bombs in less than three months using the existing stock of fissile grade highly enriched uranium. The proposed deal would extend that breakthrough time to one year at the end of a ten year moratorium.  Beginning in the 15^th year of the deal, Iran would be free to enrich uranium to fissile levels.  

Watch  this YouTube video of President Obama statement on the JCPOA:

The agreement would achieve this desired goal by:

• tracking Iran’s nuclear program at every stage of production with robust verification inspections and monitoring by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

In exchange for this, the international sanctions would be lifted providing Iran with upwards of $150 billion in sequestered funds, from largely offshore oil revenues. Moreover, the EU and other world powers would have teams of scientists working with Iranian counterparts at the Natanz and Fordo underground facilities. Those joint teams would design and develop more efficient centrifuges for enriching uranium capped at 3.67% for alleged peaceful research purposes. If Iran cheated, then the Administration contends it could snap back sanctions. The feasibility of doing that is questionable.

The devil is in both the details of the JCPOA and what was excluded. The original “anytime, anywhere inspections” regime was replaced by a prior notice system required prior notice of 24 days. Given delays for clearances and possible arbitrations of disputes before a Commission that includes Iran, this could stretch to 78 days or more. Matters of possible cheating leading to the snap back of sanctions were also to be arbitrated by the Commission. Especially concerning was the matter of satisfying the IAEA’s complaint about Iran’s alleged non-compliance with requests for information on prior military nuclear developments (PMD), such as the development of explosive triggers at the Parchin research facility. Ayatollah Khamenei basically nixed any IAEA inspections of facilities and programs under the country’s IRGC control. At first denied by the Obama Administration, so-called ‘secret’ side deals between the IAEA and the Islamic Republic were justified because that was the protocol under the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty. A Wall Street Journal report on July 27^th provided assessments by Congressional lawmakers who were briefed on these arrangements concluded that the IAEA would never conclusively discover the extent of Iran’s PMD. The Administration contested that would not stand in the way of verifying future commitments.

There were other concessions which acceding to the demands posed by the Iranian negotiating team led by Foreign Minister Javad Zarif that went beyond the scope of the JPOA Framework. There was the lifting of the June 2010 UN conventional weapons acquisition sanction under UNSC Res. 1929  at the end of five years and at the end of eight years for missile technology. Then there was a JCPOA annex listing 800 persons and institutions lifting travel bans and restricted assets. Among those listed was the head of the Quds force. The controversial Ouds force commander, Gen. Qasem Soleimani, had been involved with the development of improvised explosive eevices and support for Shiite militias in Iraq during the Second Gulf War that resulted in several hundred American service personnel deaths. Moreover, there was an Annex provision that obligated the EU and other world powers to assure protection against possible sabotage by third parties, presumably Israel. Because these additional concessions were granted beyond the scope of the April 2^nd framework, President Obama was questioned at a White House press conference on July 15^th about the possible release of four Americans, a pastor, an ex-Marine, a Washington Post bureau chief and an ex-FBI agent. They were not released as they were deemed extraneous to the nuclear agreement.  

Despite those issues, the President suggested that in contrast to his original precept that no deal was better than a bad one, this deal was better than the alternatives for the reasons cited above. Meaning that the only alternative, military action, was unacceptable. He said:

What I haven’t heard is what is your preferred alternative?

The President was referring to Israeli PM Netanyahu’s criticism expressed in his address before a Joint Meeting of Congress on March 3, 2015 and when the Framework for the JCPOA was announced on April 2^nd. In an NBC Meet the Press interview with host Chuck Todd, PM Netanyahu reiterated what he contended was the better deal:

“I’m not trying to kill any deal. I’m trying to kill a bad deal…The current plan “leaves the preeminent terrorist state of our time with a vast nuclear infrastructure.” It would spark an arms race among the Sunni states, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East,” the Israeli leader warned. “And the Middle East crisscrossed with nuclear tripwires is a nightmare for the world. I think this deal is a dream deal for Iran and it’s a nightmare deal for the world.”

Netanyahu stressed that when it comes to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, he prefers a “good” diplomatic solution to a military one.

He outlined such a solution as “one that rolls back Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and one that ties the final lifting of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program with a change of Iran’s behavior” and insists that Iran stops “calling for and working for the annihilation of Israel.” He also called for further sanctions on Iran as a way to get the country to take a deal that contains no concessions.

President Obama was taking no chances, as the JCPOA was scheduled for a UN Security Resolution vote endorsing it on July 22^nd, the first stage in the process of lifting UN international sanctions. The JCPOA has several key dates including a vote by Congress in mid-September 2015 under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Act of 2015 (INARA) co-authored by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) and Ranking Member, Senator Benjamin Cardin (D-MD). The JCPOA was structured as the equivalent of an Executive Agreement, to avoid a two thirds Senate approval as a treaty. Instead the INARA requires a majority vote by both Houses of Congress raising the prospect of a Presidential veto if Congress rejects the nuclear pact. According to some Constitutional legal experts, a negative vote by Congress would make the US, a signatory to the JCPOA, in non-compliance with international law. Potentially it might tie the hands of any successor who wished to cancel the executive order. 

On July 22^nd, the JCPOA was approved unanimously by all 15 members of the UN Security Council over the objections of the GOP majority in both Houses of Congress and the authors of INARA, Senators Corker and Cardin. A contentious INARA hearing by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was convened on July 23, which questioned the Obama negotiating team on the JCPOA. The Committee Chairman and Ranking Member were bridling at what has been deemed an end run by the Administration over Congressional Constitutional authority. There were warnings by Kerry about Israel sabotaging Iranian nuclear facilities under an approved JCPOA. Committee member James Risch (R-ID) raised the matter of the secret IAEA Iran side deals on the PMD issues. The following day Kerry flew up to New York to brief skeptical American Jewish leaders and to hold a discussion at the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) on the Iran nuclear pact. At the CFR event he suggested that if Congress did not approve the pact, the world would blame and isolate Israel. The Jewish divide in America versus Israel polls over the Iran nuclear deal was significant. A poll taken in Israel reported by the Times of Israel showed that 70% of respondents opposed it. In contrast a Los Angeles Jewish Journal poll released on July 23^rd, revealed half of American Jews approved of the Iran nuclear deal. A CNN/ORC poll issued July 28th found that the majority of Americans polled, 53%, urged the Congress to reject the Iran nuclear pact.

Against this background, on Tuesday, July 14, 2015, another in the periodic Middle East Roundtable discussions was convened by Northwest Florida’s Talk Radio 1330amWEBY’s co-hosts of “Your Turn,” Mike Bates and this writer. Our panelists were Omri Ceren, Managing Director for Press and Strategy of The Israel Project (TIP) and Shoshana Bryen, Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center. Bryen was calling in from Washington, DC. Ceren was calling in from Vienna, Austria where he had spent 19 days working with journalists covering the final deliberations of the nuclear pact with Iran. Ceren had also been in Lausanne, Switzerland covering the April 2^nd announcement of a framework for a final JCPOA. 

Mike Bates:  Welcome to Your Turn. This is Mike Bates. Today is July 14, 2015. The reason that date may matter is because, in history, I am reminded of an agreement that was reached on September 29, 1938. Commonly referred to as the Munich Agreement, when Neville Chamberlain thought we had peace in our time, with Adolf Hitler. Less than a year later, the Germans invaded Poland, and World War II was underway. Today, July 14, 2015, President Barack Obama has announced that he has reached an agreement with the Iranians. Does this mean peace? Or does this mean war? Joining us to discuss this, I have in the Studio Jerry Gordon, senior editor of the New English Review and its blog The Iconoclast. Welcome, Jerry.

 

Jerry Gordon:  Good to be back, Mike. 

 

Bates:  Joining us by telephone, Shoshana Bryen, senior director of The Jewish Policy Center in Washington. Shoshana, welcome.

 

 

Shoshana Bryen: Thank you, Mike.

 

 

Bates:  And via telephone from Vienna is Omri Ceren, the managing director for press and strategy at The Israel Project. Welcome, Omri.

 

Omri Ceren:     Good to be here, Mike.  Thanks.

 

Bates:   So, Omri, you have been in Vienna for awhile. What have you been doing there?

US and Israel?

It means that one or more of the world powers will now be working with the Iranians helping them develop their nuclear technology. Another provision of the agreement discovered in the third of five annexes of the 159 page document was the EU-3 is committed to helping the Iranians develop and protect their nuclear program against sabotage.

Bates:  Shoshana, what are you hearing in Washington, at the Jewish Policy Center, about this deal? As Omri said, nobody seems to have read the entire document. We are learning little by little what this includes. What is the opinion, so far, of the Jewish Policy Center?

 if you have international scientists in it.

it more dangerous, because the military option, as I see it, Shoshana, is off the table.

you are right to the extent that if there was a facility you felt was absolutely crucial, I believe Israel could destroy it.

is absolute insanity, from my viewpoint.

Bryen:  Precisely.

Bates:  Omri, What have you witnessed in Vienna over the last 19 days?

truth.

Bates:  Omri, did you just say that we have a requirement of 24 days notice before we inspect a facility? I had heard it was 14 days. Is it 24 days notice?

sequesters involving none other than the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, General Qasem Soleimani. What is all that about?

even constructive ones. First, they made a mistake born of incompetence. Second, they lied about it.

that. Am I wrong, Omri?

Gordon:  Omri, US Senator Lindsey Graham suggested that the announcement of this deal was the moral equivalent of a declaration of war against Israel. Given this discussion with both you and Shoshana, what options does Israel have, at this time, to combat this deal?

Gordon:  Shoshana, what are your views on that?

Bates:  That always has been very true. Shoshana, what is the role of Congress? Did Congress completely abdicate any role with the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act?

Bates:  However, Shoshana, Congress, in Article 1, Section 8, has the right to regulate commerce with foreign nations. Iran is a foreign nation, trade is commerce. So, has Congress abdicated that responsibility?

lifted immediately are executive sanctions. UN Security Council Resolution sanctions are not subject to Congressional review. Unfortunately, however, Congressional sanctions do, in some cases, have a “national security” waiver that allows the President to waive them for “national security” reasons.

Gordon:  Omri, what is the risk in this region that non-proliferation ends and the opposite occurs? Is this the opening of a Pandora’s Box?

Ceren:  Not just the obvious, but the well nigh undeniable. We talked earlier of what a lot is dangerous about this Administration’s communications with American lawmakers and the American public is that they just don’t tell the truth. They make excuses for Iranian cheating. But another aspect that has been widely remarked upon is they say insulting things in order to defend their policies. One great example is their answers to the potential that Saudi Arabia will respond to a bad deal by going nuclear. Let’s be clear, Saudi Arabia will respond to a bad deal by going nuclear. They have not been bashful and have told us in as many words that they will not wait to gain their own nuclear capabilities till the Iranians get a nuclear bomb. They’ve said that they will respond with their own infrastructure when they believe that it is now inevitable that they will get a nuclear bomb. And they have said that this deal makes it inevitable that Iran gets its nuclear bomb, which is correct. You then have these very clear declarations from a traditional American ally that sits in the center of the world’s energy markets that they intend to go nuclear in response to this deal. If they go nuclear then the entire deal is trashed because there is no chance that the Iranian military will permit the Sunnis to get a bomb without their having a nuclear bomb. They will respond by backing out of the deal. Now obviously this is a worst case scenario for the White House. Yesterday, you were in a world where you had no deal and no Iranian bomb. Now you have a deal and you may have an Iranian bomb. What have been their responses? I don’t want to overemphasize this but it is difficult not notice that we have a scenario that will trash everything that the Administration has hoped to create, all costs and no benefits. What is their answer?

They say two things about the Saudis. One is that the Saudis lack the resources to go nuclear which is insane given the example of North Korea and given what we know about Saudi Arabia’s GDP and how they allocate their resources. The second is what one of the top hands at the NSC wrote in a pamphlet was that the Saudis will never go nuclear because they are afraid of an international oil embargo. I’m sorry but that is not a sophisticated argument. The entire success of the deal and the potential that the deal will fail could leave an entire nuclear Middle East in its wake.  

Bryen:  Let me throw in a caveat. Just because Israel and Saudi Arabia find themselves on the same side of the Iran problem at the moment, they are neither friends nor allies. The nuclearization of Saudi Arabia is a huge problem for Israel. We should not make too much of this temporary marriage of convenience, in which the Saudis really hope the Israelis will take care of the Iranians for them. This will not be a good thing for Israel.

Gordon:  This is a jump ball question for you both. In the bizarre world of the Middle East has Iran actually boosted the Islamic State?

Bryen:  The answer is yes.

Gordon:  And Shoshana?

Bates:  Omri, any comments on that?

Listen to the original 1330amWEBY Your Turn show broadcast, here.

 

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