The Iranian Missile Threat - New English Review

by Jerry Gordon (August 2011)

Iran’s Missile Range Map 2009

Fort Huachuca in Arizona.

The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962

The Cuban Missile Crisis disrupted my initial training. It was the most harrowing experience for me, members of my officers training company and hundreds of millions of Americans glued to their TV sets wondering whether a nuclear shaped cloud might appear at any moment in their vicinity. In my case, it meant possibly being deployed to become part of an invasion force being mobilized at conclusion of basic Infantry training. Soviet bombers, Medium and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs) equipped with nuclear warheads had ranges that covered most of the continental US. These weapons had been secreted into Castro’s Cuba by ship from ports in the USSR on orders of Premier Nikita Khrushchev. These Russian supply vessels had been shadowed by US surface ships and submarines. U-2s and other low level aircraft photographed the full length of Cuba and uncovered evidence of Soviet missile base and SAM defense construction. A U-2 piloted by USAF Major Rudolph Anderson, Jr. was shot down by a Soviet SAM -2 that nearly triggered an invasion of Cuba and possible nuclear attack on the US.

Later in my intelligence career I would view some of the U-2 imagery and work on updating some of the intelligence files for a Joint Task Force plan for a possible invasion of Cuba. The Cuban Missile Crisis climaxed in a nerve wracking confrontation at the UN General Assembly between the late Adlai Stevenson, US UN ambassador at the time, and then Soviet UN Ambassador Valerian Zorin. Stevenson, equipped with aerial pictures of Soviet-supplied missiles, demanded an answer from stoic Ambassador Zorin to the question: are these offensive weapons? We found out much later Cuban Premier Castro had actually demanded that Premier Krushschev fire Soviet supplied missiles at the US during the height of the crisis. That unnerved Krushschev forcing him to re-evaluate the strategy leading ultimately to the deal struck with President Kennedy. Kennedy increased pressure on the Soviet leader to retreat from this dangerous confrontation via a Naval Blockade of Cuba to hail, stop and search Soviet supply vessels with missile and aircraft cargoes. But, it also meant that a Communist totalitarian dictator in our Western Hemisphere could have had his finger on the nuclear missile trigger. Over 100 million Americans were within the 2,800 mile striking range of Soviet-supplied batteries of R-14 IRBMs equipped with thermo-nuclear warheads. The Missiles of October crisis was a close run thing. The troubling episode ended with a secret deal to exchange aging Jupiter missiles based in Turkey, a NATO ally, for withdrawal of Soviet nuclear missiles. It also developed into the Mutual Assured Destruction deterrent doctrine that prevailed during the remainder of the Cold War era. This arrangement included the direct communication link between the White House and the Kremlin and ultimately led to the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaties between US and Russia. It also contributed to the Soviet Cominterm removal of Premier Krushschev, but not the fall of Cuban dictator Castro.

Adlai Stevenson with U-2 Photos at UN

The Rising Iranian Nuclear Missile Threat

assembling its first nuclear bomb in August, 2011. According to the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control Iran may have 4,000 kilograms of low-enriched uranium enough to make four nuclear devices. Like the Cuban Missile crisis, Iran has developed a family of missiles that have payload lifting capacity for nuclear bombs. Those missiles could range throughout the Middle East into Southeastern and Central Europe. Moreover, Iran’s longer range missiles can range as far as London, Paris and Berlin in Western Europe. There are further indications that the Revolutionary Guards may have plans of developing ICBMs that might range as far as the east Coast of the US. There is concern that Iran might position missiles in Hugo Chavez’s totalitarian Socialist regime in Venezuela, a scenario not unlike the Cuban Missile Crisis of October, 1962. Given the apocalyptic Mahdist Shia doctrine in Iran, these recent missile developments and tests can no longer be ignored.

told Parliament that:

Iran has been carrying out covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload.

He told parliament the tests were in clear contravention of UN resolution 1929 that sanctioned such developments by Iran.

launched long range missiles with a range of 1,900 kilometers (1,200 miles into the Indian Ocean, monitored by US naval forces in the vicinity. Those tests represent a clear threat to Israel and US assets in the Middle East.

books promoting his experience and Middle East expertise, opined in a Los Angeles KPFK Pacifica radio interview with Ian Matthews of “Background Briefing’ that Israel might be gearing up for a possible attack in September on Iran’s nuclear weapons development facilities. Pacifica radio is notoriously, anti-Israel. Baer speculated during the Matthews interview that primary targets might include the Natanz facility engaged in enriching uranium with its more than 8,000 whirling centrifuges. Allegedly, according to Baer, the US Joint Chiefs have issued possible war warnings to the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and what remains of our forces in Iraq. “Cowboy,” also an ex-CIA covert officer believes that Baer is not to be trusted. He noted:

Syriana himself. [The film is based on his book See No Evil]. Baer is anti-Israeli, pro-Syrian, pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi…i.e. pro-Muslim. He speaks Arab and thinks we should all get rid of our SUVs.

Former CIA Man: Don't Bet on Israel Bombing Iran on My Speculation!” New English Review colleague, Hugh Fitzgerald characterized it as: “Embarrassed And Chagrinned By His On-The-Air Lightheadedness, Robert Baer Tries To Backtrack.” Baer in his interview response to Matthews commented in Time that:

written that Israel has a full quiver of options. These include its own nuclear capable missile the Jericho III, cruise missiles launched from its Dolphin submarine fleet, and cyber warfare techniques like Stuxnet that have disabled Iran’s nuclear development infrastructure. Conventional air attack scenarios that would endeavor to reduce the Natanz and other nuclear underground facilities would be fraught with complex air route and logistical problems. Obtaining Saudi, Iraqi and even Turkish airspace permission would be doubtful. For one thing the US Iraqi Status of Forces agreement precludes such authorities. Nevertheless, Israel could be subject to an onslaught of the combined Iranian and proxies’ missile counterstrikes should a nuclear facilities attack scenario of the type that Baer speculates occur.

Pine Tree fire control radar and Citron Tree battle management systems, as well as Israel’s own spy in the sky, the Ofek 9 satellite.

Enter Israeli Missile Defense Expert, Uzi Rubin.

The Israel Project noted his considerable background in a recent interview with journalists, including the author:

National Defense Industries Association (NDIA). Peter Huessy, founder and long term director of the Capitol Hill Congressional Breakfast seminars, holds Rubin in high regard, as do others in the US missile defense community. Huessy noted this about Rubin, a presenter at a mid-June 2011 Capitol Hill Forum:

Iran Makes Giant Strides in Missile Programs”:

[. . .]

The Iranians took a Fateh-110 rocket, which is also in Hezbollah hands, installed on it a guidance system and turned it into an anti-ship missile.

[. . .]

The Iranian missile program is running ahead and the moment they have a nuclear weapon, they will have the means to launch it,

The Israel Project Interview with Uzi Rubin

Iranian MB-25 acquired from North Korea with 3,500 KM range

here.

the solid-fuel Shejil-2 and the BM-25 that the New York Times reported may have been sold to the Iranians by the North Koreans:

Rubin goes on to estimate the inventory of the large and growing Iranian long range missile threat.

[. . .]

In response to a question from Livne on Iran building missile bases in Venezuela under Chavez, Rubin speculates that may be a distinct possibility:

Syrian, Hezbollah and Hamas Missile and Rocket Threats

M-600 short range missile developed in cooperation with Iran. Rubin responded authoritatively:

The Syrians don’t publicly admit that there are any missile developments. However they inadvertently admitted they had missiles, when their missiles went haywire and hit Turkish territory by mistake, they apologized. Otherwise, they don’t admit, they don’t disclose, they don’t show pictures.

About Hamas and its rocket capabilities, Rubin noted:

Arrow Anti-Missile System Joint Israeli-US Development Program

Arrow Anti-Missile System, Iron Dome and David’s Sling– the latter, a co-development of Israel’s Rafael, Ltd. and Raytheon in the US.

As the Missile Defense Agency explains:

So the missile threat has become one of the main threats. It became more complex, more numerous, and at longer distances.

Arrow-3, a brand new missile [fully funded by the US and developed by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.]. It will do the first intercept of any incoming long-range missile.

Arms Control officials and CIA missile intelligence analysts (see the May 2009 NIE assessment) have issued negative assessments of Iran’s missile development progress. These assessments indicated that the Iranian ICBMs wouldn’t be developed until the period from 2015 to 2020. Moreover these critics suggested that Iran’s missiles could only reach targets as far West as Southeastern Europe. Implicit in those assessments is denial of the informed opinions of experts like Uzi Rubin, Michael Elleman of the UK–based International Institute for Strategic Studies and Russia’s Yuri Solomonov of the Thermal Engineering Institute. Fred Fleitz, a 25 year veteran analyst at the CIA, DIA, State department and U.S. House of Representatives Intelligence Committee staff member noted the danger of denial of the Iran nuclear threat in a Wall Street Journal op-ed,

In response to a question on this issue from Livne, Rubin said:

[. . .]

Even more amazing, the US government allows Iranian scientists to come and present technical papers on missiles at conferences here. I have some copies of that material obtained in 2007, when Iranian scientists spoke of missile technology at a conference in Cincinnati. My friends in America have no explanation why that occurred or continues.

Congressional Study Commission on the EMP threat would be as frightening as what many of us thought possible during the October 1962 missile crisis. An Iranian EMP missile attack would destroy the US economy and electrical infrastructure plunging this country back to a pre-industrial era with tens of millions of attendant deaths. Another horrific scenario cited by Rubin is a rocket launched from a freighter offshore, where specific attribution would be extremely difficult, aimed at a major east coast city with a Hiroshima type airburst incinerating the inhabitants below. We note that Iran completed successful test launches of a modified SCUD missile from a ship in the Caspian Sea. According to Kenneth Timmerman in a NewsMax.com article “US Intel: Iran Plans Nuclear Strike on US”, that clearly upset former White House Science Adviser William Graham of the Claremont Institute in testimony before the US House Armed Services committee in 2008. That may be the chaos and apocalyptic vision that the Ayatollahs in Tehran are seeking in their nuclear and missile programs to achieve their totalitarian objective of Islamic global hegemony.

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