The Unintended Consequences of Specific Policies in the Middle East

by Samir Yousif (October 2015)

Introduction

The complexities of the political and the mutually-interrelated indigenous forces of the Middle East necessitate a multi-disciplinary approach. There are many interest groups, ethnic minorities, religions, and sects, in addition to the influence of the external interests that interact with each other on a daily basis. To initiate an action and to expect a specific outcome, under such circumstances, is highly unlikely. The events during the last decades provide ample evidence of such complexities. The theme of this work is inspired by the statement of an Israeli commentator regarding the Israeli[1] incursion into Lebanon during the 1980’s. In this present work I will present Saudi regional policies towards developments in neighboring countries and discuss the unintended consequences of such policies. This work will also touch upon the grave situation that resulted from the unintended consequences that took place. In addition I will discuss the consequences of the alternative options available. Taking Saudi Arabia as an example is entirely for academic purposes and other countries, like Qatar or Turkey, can serve the purpose as well.

Developments in Iraq

[3] and the issue of Iraq’s debts. While Paris Club recommended a cancelation of 80% of the debts, Saudi Arabia declined such advice.

Such developments are seen by Western commentators through different angles and in many cases, these are contradictory. But the final outcome speaks for itself. In a recent contribution, Tamara Wittes[4] while noticing the developments in the Middle East assumed an active Iranian role that led to a public outcry in Bahrain (providing an example of Iranian intervention in the internal affairs of Gulf States). Tamara Wittes while ignoring the prevailing apartheid regime in Bahrain considered the public cry, general dissatisfaction and deprivation as resulting from an Iranian plot. Such conclusions made by Western commentators shed the light in a clear way on Western understandings and methods of analysis. Tamara Wittes overlooked the fact that  the people of Bahrain have been engaged in political activities to bring down the present apartheid regime since the 1970’s[5]. What brought the Bahrain issue back to light was not the Iranian involvement but the rise of the Arab Spring[6].

It was the Arab Spring that encouraged the ordinary people to go out to the streets and demand their basic human rights, not only in Bahrain, but in other Arab countries as well. The Arab Spring cannot be attributed to an “Iranian Involvement” as the main victims of this upheaval were the Libyan and the Syrian regimes who were both strategic allies to Iran[7].

[8]. So it was not only the Saudis who had serious worries and concerns of what was taking place in Iraq.

[10].

Now by stating the objective one can discuss the consequences of implementing the plans of the opposition. The consequences of implementing those plans, in turn, created new conditions and circumstances that had led to the establishments of undesired results and unintended consequences.

The Iraqi Scenario

[12]. The routes these fighters took outside Iraq were carefully selected[13]. Thirdly, the opposition had plans to provide the internal Sunni groups with enough weapons and ammunition.

[15]. The second step would then be to use all means, especially armed resistance and other forms of violence, to bring down the newly-established state. Such tactics translated into car-bombs and various kinds of exploding packages and containers aimed at densely-populated Shi’a areas.

The human cost of such actions was enormous and various estimates suggested civilian casualties to exceed half a million innocent civilians[16].

When such developments take place one, should not assume that the victims will exhibit no  reaction. On the contrary, it is under such abnormal situations that one should not exclude any possible option. In addition, the presence of Iran next door opens up further possibilities.

[17].

The Unintended Consequences

Such understandings lead us to our main theme, i.e. the unintended consequences of an action by Saudi Arabia to have specific influence on the political developments of Iraq.

As has been shown, the actions taken by Saudi Arabia (referred to as the opposition) led to the following set of events.

A state of civil war took place after the year 2006 with numerous incidents of identity-killing[18]. Al-Qaeda was brought to Ramadi Province during 2006 and ISIL took over large areas of Iraq by June 2014.

But there is another outcome of vital importance. The opposition in their plans neglected the role of neighboring Iran. For Iran the second option coincided with its plans of involving itself in Iraq and ultimately controlling it. Iran has succeeded in establishing loyal and very strong militias with increasing political power within the evolving political system in Iraq. This political power extends out from the Parliament to the State organs and the government. In parallel lines one can witness the increasing Iranian influence in Iraq as a consequence of the plans of the Sunni opposition[19].

Can we predict the future course of events?

[20]. Atrocities and other forms of violence against civilians. This destruction created refugees in the millions scattered in other areas inside Iraq as well as outside Iraq. In addition to the flow of Sunni immigrants through illegal routes into Europe.

[22] will prevail and lead the political process from the majority side. Moderate segments of the Shi’a will be in a very disadvantageous situation and wither away. Such a scenario will ultimately lead to the establishment of a religious state in Iraq in full subordination to the Iranian Supreme Leader[23]. What increases the odds of such an outcome are the doubts cast on the professionalism of the present Iraqi Army.

Is there another option?

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has issued a fatwa[24] to fight ISIL in Iraq. The public response was very significant and millions of men volunteered. The Iraqi State which is infiltrated by pro-Iranians officials made sure that this new large force was under their control and that the Iranian-backed militias would have a priority, whether in arms, ammunition or finance. Ultimately this led to the neutralization of this independent strong force. A clear victory to Iran.

The other possibility that Sunni tribes hostile to ISIL could be regrouped and trained to create an army capable of regaining the Sunni areas taken by ISIL. This option is debatable as the collapse of the Iraqi army in both Mosel and Ramadi provide ample evidence of the difficulty in distinguishing between Sunnis who are with ISIL and those who are against[25].

This last possibility requires further qualification. The Sunni tribes might be skeptical to the presence of the Iranian-backed militias, but they do not share such an attitude towards a friendly foreign force that promise them a clear political perspective. It could be argued that, under such conditions, the role of the Sunni tribes could be positive.

What are the consequences if the present standoff continues for years to come?

[27] of the present Constitution in order to achieving long-term stability to all Iraq. Today there exist 350 different armed groups in Iraq each claiming to defend Iraq.

It seems that the unintended consequences of the first scenario for the future are still open to all possibilities, whether they are perceived today or not.

Russia and the New Alliance 4+1

Although this work is confined mainly to Iraq, yet the recent developments in Syria resulted in a different set of unintended consequences.

The only naval base the Russians have on the Mediterranean is located in Syria.  

A new alliance has being forming. This new alliance is referred to as 4+1 indicating the presence of four countries (Russia +Syria + Iraq + Iran plus Hezbollah). Although the declared intention of this Alliance is to coordinate and share intelligence information, developments on the ground provide a different picture. What should be actually highlighted is the Russian involvement with ground troops. It is this development that represents the most important unintended consequence of the opposition plans in Iraq as ISIL occupies large areas in both Iraq and Syria.

This latest development confirms the immaturity of Saudi plans in Iraq. It also sends a message to the Saudis that they are in urgent need of foreign advice when formulating their own regional policies as the Saudi thinking is confined by the limits of Wahhabism. The unintended consequences of the Saudis rejecting American plans for introducing democracy in the Middle East have produced unexpected alliances that the Saudis themselves never wished to see.

*******

Iranian backed-militias in Iraq

 

The Militias 

With the incursion of ISIL into many areas in Iraq and the failure of the regular government forces to control the situation, a new player imposed itself on the already-complicated political picture of Iraq. This new player was the Iran-backed militias. Most of these militias were also backed by Al-Maliki Cabinet especially Badr Legend commanded by Hadi Al-Amiri and League of the Righteous commanded by Shekh Qais Al-Khazali.

We can distinguish between the following militias: 

1. Badr militia 

This militia split from Sadrist. It is supported by Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki and the Iranian Government. The commander is Shekh Khazali. they have a political bloc in the Parliament called Sadiqoun.

3. Hezbollah Brigades

This militia split from No. 2 above. A new command was established and it is run by Iran 100%. 

This party changed to Khurasani Forces, its commander is  Al-Yasseri (who worked with the US forces after 2003). 

6. Junid Al-Imam (The soldiers of the Imam) 

Its commander is Ahmed al- Assadi.This force used to follow Khadhim al-Khalisi who was arrested by the US forces. 

7. Ansar Allah (God Supporters)

This militia was established by Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis three months after the fatwa. 

8. Saraya Al-Salam (Peace Brigades)

Previously known as Muhdi Army established by Muktada Al-Sadr during the presence of the US troops in Iraq. There is an strong Iranian influence on the Mehdi Army but less on Saraya Al-Salam. 

Militias and their increasing Political Influence  

Day after the other the pro-Iran militias are gathering further strength, whether through increasing their numbers or the type of weapons they possess. But what is noticeable, is the fact that their political role was surfacing. Such a role is backed by their military strength.

[1] See Caitlin Smith, (27.11.2012), The 1982 Lebanon War was Israel’s Vietnam. In this paper the unintended consequences took place as a reaction to the war inside Israel (served to act as a catalyst for political and social change, largely characterized by a move towards the political left, and a marked decrease in positive proclamations of the use of conventional military force), in International Relations Student, Link: http://www.e-ir.info/2012/11/27/the-1982-lebanon-war-was-israels-vietnam/. But more importantly, the Israeli incursion of 1982 led to the creation of Hezbollah, the most important unintended consequences of that war.

[5] During the 1970’s Iran was under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi whowas the main strategic ally to the USA in the region.

[7] There is an argument stating that the Green Revolution of 2009 in Iran was the “spark” for the Arab Spring.

[9] Syria was allied to Saudi Arabia and other opposition force after 2003 although it had an Embassy in Baghdad.

[10] In an indirect way Iran was adopting a similar approach.

[11] The Sunni rebellion was indigenous and received significant support from regional powers.

[12] Mainly Wahhabi believers (Salafists).

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[15] The argument used by the opposition that proper elections cannot take place under occupation.

[16] Although the precise number is unavailable, Western estimates suggest high numbers and up to one million civilians, see the report issued by Body Count, First International Edition March 2015, see the Executive Summary, go to link: http://www.psr.org/assets/pdfs/body-count.pdf.

[21] see the Attachment Iranian backed-Militias in Iraq.

[23] Signs of such attempts are taken place right now as the main Iranian-backed militia (Shekh Khazali see footnote 16) are calling for a change in the constitution towards a Presidential system.

[24] The fatwa was issued in 13 June 2014.

[25] Many Sunni armed men working on the side of the Iraqi army changed sides overnight and joined ISIL.

[26] Actually the proposed National Guard Act contradicts the 9th Article of the Constitution.

[27] What type of State will ensure stability in Iraq? Centralization or decentralization and to what extent? The present Constitution lead Iraq to this deadlock.

 

_______________________________
 

Samir Yousif is a graduate of the London School of Economics (1976) and has worked in different sectors in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Bahrain, and in Europe. He worked as a professor in economics (1986-1994) at the University of al-Qadisiyah (Iraq), and at the University of Al-Fateh (1994-1996) in Tripoli, Libya. Mr.Yousif is a Norwegian Citizen, at the present living in the city of Stavanger, Norway.

 

 

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