Why Iran’s Shia Land Bridge Threatens Israel
An Interview with Seth J. Frantzman and Shoshana Bryen
by Jerry Gordon and Mike Bates (January 2018)
Land Bridge (source: Washington Times)
n December 6, 2017, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, delivering a 2016 election campaign promise largely made to his Christian Evangelical base. While expressing the hope that this might lead to moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, he nevertheless signed another six month waiver under the 1995 Jerusalem Embassy Act as his predecessors had done. Secretary of State Tillerson suggested it would take several years before such a move could be a reality. The announcement by President Trump was greeted by outrage from Arab and Muslim leaders across the Ummah with calls for summits to unleash a campaign of resistance claiming East Jerusalem as the future capital of a Palestinian State.
—was the question asked in a November 18, 2017 Jerusalem Post oped by Jonathan Spyer. That seemed to be on the mind of many analysts as the Iran-controlled Iraqi Hashd Al Shaabi Popular Mobilization Force and Iraqi National Army breached the last bastions of the Islamic State on the Iraqi Syrian Frontier. Meanwhile, the US backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Force with coalition air support was sealing its conquest of Syria’s major oil field at Deir al Zour on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River. Only pockets of Islamic fighters remained in the largely desert areas of eastern Syria, where perhaps among them was the leader of the defeated Islamic State, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi.
Iraqi Premier Haidar al-Abadi announced on December 9, 2017 the defeat of the Islamic State by the Iraqi National Army and Iran-controlled Hashd al-Shaabi Popular Mobilization force (PMF) supported by over 5,900 US military advisers. He was asked by US Secretary of State Tillerson to disband the Iran- controlled PMF, a number of whose leaders were active in opposing US forces during the Second Gulf War. Their actions resulted in hundreds of US casualties from Iran-produced Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDS). IEDS that ironically claimed US casualties during the war against the Islamic State. A PMF militia leader suggested that President Trump’s Jerusalem decision was justification for attacking US advisers.
The US was accused of having abandoned the Iraqi Kurds in mid-October 2017, when the combined Iran-controlled PMF and Iraqi National Army task force suddenly swept into the oil-rich Kirkuk region routing the Peshmerga and sending hundreds of thousands of Kurds and others streaming into the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) area. US officials such as Special Envoy Brett McGurk, Pentagon Secretary Mattis and Secretary of State Tillerson warned the Kurds of “consequences” if they went ahead with the Independence Referendum on September 25, 2017. They argued that US security interests lay with maintaining the questionable unity of Iraq.
Al-Abadi faces the Herculean effort of finding the hundreds of billions in funding to restore ruined cities and generating employment for half of the country’s population under the age of 19, whose ranks might harbor future Sunni and Shia extremists.
On December 11, Russian President Putin flew into a Russian airbase in Syria and announced victory over rebels and the Islamic State eclipsing his host Syrian President Abbas. Russia is building a naval base on the Mediterranean at the port of Tartus, while ostensibly withdrawing some air assets. He then flew off to Ankara to brief Turkish President Erdogan and flew on to Cairo to sign a nuclear development deal with Egyptian President El-Sisi. He appears to be holding some important cards to play in the Middle East in contrast to the US.
Meanwhile, Iran is beavering away insinuating and building permanent bases and weapons factories in Syria and Lebanon. These were targets of Israeli air and missile strikes on December 2, 2017 producing Iranian casualties. Quds Force Commander Gen. Soleimani has brought in thousands of Shia proxies like Hezbollah from Lebanon, the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi Popular Mobilization Force, Hazara Shia from Afghanistan and Shia from Pakistan perhaps intent on turning Syria into another Islamic Republic. Further, Soleimani announced on December 12, 2017 support for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza opposing Israel. Iran was flexing its military muscle.
On December 8, 2017, Qais al-Khazali a powerful PMF commander was brought in by Hezbollah. He peered at Israeli communities from across the Lebanon border. This infuriated Lebanon PM Saad Hariri who had banned him raising the question of how weak was his leadership in the face of this Iran threat. Former US Middle East negotiator for both Republican and Democratic Presidents. Ambassador Dennis Ross noted in a Wall Street Journal op ed on December 4, 2017 that an Israeli IDF commander during a visit to the Golan frontier pointed out a Quds Force/Hezbollah command post less than 4 miles from the Israel/Syrian Frontier.
Meanwhile, the US has a conundrum facing it with regard to the Kurds in both Iraq and Syria. Whether it should abandon training and supply of equipment to Peshmerga in Iraqi Kurdistan after the debacle in mid-October ending possession of Kirkuk, overrun by PMF and Iraqi National Army units equipped with US weapons and vehicles. Then there was the announcement by Secretary of Defense Mattis that we would take back heavy weapons and vehicles from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Force.
Subsequently, that policy was changed to leaving US troops in Syria on a “conditions” rather than “calendar” basis, adapted from his war strategy in Afghanistan. Commentators in Israel suggest that the Jewish nation take on that responsibility as Israeli PM Netanyahu went on record supporting an independent Kurdistan before a visiting US Congressional delegation in August, 2017.
Because of the risible Iran threat to Saudi Arabia and others in the Gulf Cooperation Council, notably the UAE, there were indications that a tacit alliance with Israel might become a reality. On November 16, 2017, The Jerusalem Post reported that IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot in an on-line Arab publication suggested that some intelligence sharing might be a possibility.
Against this background, another periodic 1330am WEBY Middle East Roundtable discussion was held with Seth J. Frantzman, opinion editor of the Jerusalem Post and Shoshana Bryen, senior director of the Washington, DC-based Jewish Policy Center.
Mike Bates: Good afternoon, and welcome to Your Turn. This is Mike Bates. We are going to have our periodic Middle East Roundtable discussion today and I have with me in the studio for that Jerry Gordon, Senior Editor of the New English Review. Welcome Jerry.
Jerry Gordon: Glad to be back Mike.
Bates: And joining us by telephone, Shoshana Bryen, Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center in Washington. Shoshana, welcome.
Shoshana Bryen: Nice to be here.
Bates: And also by telephone, this time from Jerusalem, Seth J. Frantzman, Opinion Editor at The Jerusalem Post. Seth welcome to Your Turn.
Seth Frantzman: Thanks a lot.
Bates: Seth, my first question is for you. It has to do with the war in Syria, specifically ISIS in Syria. The American press has not been giving it much attention as they have been hyper focused on the Mueller investigation into the alleged Russian collusion. A lot of people are unfamiliar with what the current status is in Syria. Can you give us an update?
Bates: Do you think with the practical defeat of Islamic state in Syria that Iran has put the final touches on its land bridge to the Mediterranean that it has sought for so long?
Bates: Shoshana, a follow up to that. Is Syria sharing its land with Iranian military bases? What has been the Israeli reaction to that?
Gordon: Speaking about that we had an Israeli missile strike on that suspected Iranian base in Syria possibly producing revolutionary guard casualties. What message is Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu sending to Syria, Iran, Russia and the U.S. about crossing those very same red lines you just talked about Shoshana?
Gordon: Seth any comment?
Frantzman: I think there is a very dangerous game being played on the Golan right now in terms of Israel saying we would like the Iranians to stay forty to sixty kilometers away. Of course there has been something like a reported one hundred or more airstrikes in the last two years targeting weapons transfers to Hezbollah. I think that is a very dangerous situation. Any wrong move or miscalculation by one of the groups could lead to a major incident up there.
Gordon: This question goes to both of you. Why did the Trump administration suborn Kurdish independence in Iraq and why did Pentagon Chief Jim Mattis abandon the U.S. backed Kurdish lead Syrian Democratic Force in Northeast Syria? Seth? Do you want to start with that?
Bates: Shoshana, did you want to weigh in on that?
Bates: Just not as much in the South is what I meant.
Bates: A very good point Shoshana.
Gordon: Shoshana, IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot broadly hinted in an Arab on-line publication Interview that Israel might share intelligence with the Saudis. CIA Director Mike Pompeo basically said there already is in existence some sort of exchange of intelligence. Is that an indication of an emerging tacit alliance of Israel, Saudi Arabia, perhaps some of the emirates against Iran?
Gordon: Seth, your comments?
Gordon: Shoshana, do you have any comment?
Bates: Are they returning the billions that were seized?
Bryen: Are you kidding?
Bates: (laughs) Well it was a legitimate question actually so they let them out of their prison at the Ritz Carlton Hotel which had to be pretty lavish conditions I would think for a prison. However, are you saying that they have not given back the billions that were allegedly taken illegally?
Bates: How much of that stemmed from President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia earlier this year? Shoshana, do you think there was any connection?
Bates: Jerry what do you think of that?
Bates: Seth. I have got a question for you about the PA reconciliation agreement brokered by Egypt with Hamas. It seems to be falling apart over control of weapons and Iran backed Palestinian Islamic jihad has engaged in cross-border rocket and mortar attacks triggering some IDF retaliation. What options does Israel have to deal with those threats on its Southern frontier?
Frantzman: The thing that I see about having Gaza completely controlled by Hamas was you had an address to blame when things went wild down there or when Islamic jihad wanted to stir things up with rocket attacks. The problem with the reconciliation agreement that Israel has always feared is now the Palestinian Authority is in Gaza. The Palestinian Authority is naturally weak and Hamas can hide behind it and stir up trouble. Islamic jihad and all sorts of other weird groups don’t have an address to blame so, what I mean, you have to retaliate and then you get sucked into a conflict. The real fear at the moment is that it has been three years without a conflict in Gaza. The nature of things here is that people start to think, “Yeah, okay well that means there is going to be another round of violence.” As you correctly pointed out, the Iranians are involved in this because the Iranians are connected to Islamic jihad, they are also connected to Hamas. Iran would like to take a poke at Israel.
Bates: Shoshana, I do have a question about the weapons however coming out of Gaza. They have been relatively crude in terms of they just shoot them and wherever the trajectory takes it takes it. They are not guided. Are the Iranians providing more advanced guidance technology to rockets that may be fired from Gaza into Israel?
Bates: Do we know where those advanced technology rockets would be coming from? Is it by sea? Israel has a pretty decent control over what gets in and out of Gaza.
Gordon: Shoshana, given the large toll in Egypt’s Sinai with the Sufi Mosque Massacre, how tough will it be for the el-Sisi government to defeat the Islamic state affiliate and how dependent is Egypt on intelligent sharing with Israel?
Gordon: Seth, what are your thoughts on the question of whether or not the el-Sisi government is capable of defeating the Islamic state affiliate in the Sinai? Shoshana just commented on whether Egypt is going to stanch the flow of weapons that seemingly come from Iranian sources out of the Red Sea.
Bates: Speaking of what we know in the news business, the American Press does a dismal job, I think, frankly reporting on what is going on truthfully in the Middle East. Particularly as it pertains to Israel—which is why I rely so heavily on JPost.com for my information. You do have an outstanding website there with the Jerusalem Post. Seth. I do have a question about Jared Kushner, the President’s son-in-law. He spoke at the Saban Middle East Policy Forum in Washington about the peace efforts. There are rumors about a possible plan with Egypt ceding Sinai space for expansion of Gaza and some kind of an Egyptian connection to Jordan via the Negev. Is there anything to that?
Gordon: Shoshana, there is also something that appeared in the Wall Street Journal—a proposal by a Likud member and famous criminologist in Israel, Anat Berko. It is about disentangling Arabs and Jews in Jerusalem and other connections including annexation of Area C. How mind-blowing is that?
Bates: As you said a moment ago, what Peace Process?
Bryen: Right. I think they are shooting blanks here with the exception of their ability to foment terrorism at some level against Israel—and that I do think is worth noting and worth worrying about.
Bates: So the Palestinians have called for an emergency meeting of the Arab League. What do they expect to accomplish at such a meeting?
Bryen: Basic Israel bashing because really the Arab League has no ability to alter the facts on the ground either. I think the Palestinians are looking for political support in a way, but t they may not get it. The Saudis think the Palestinians are in the way of Saudi fundamental interests.
Gordon: Seth from your vantage point in Jerusalem what is the U.S.’s ability to leverage anything?
Bates: Thank you for this great conversation with Jerry Gordon, Senior Editor of the New English, Shoshana Bryen, Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center in Washington and Seth Frantzman, Opinion Editor at The Jerusalem Post. Thank you all for joining the discussion here on 1330 WEBY.
Listen to the original 1330amWEBY interview.
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Jerome B Gordon is a Senior Vice President of the New English Review and author of The West Speaks, NER Press 2012. Mr. Gordon is a former US Army intelligence officer who served during the Viet Nam era. He was the co-host and co-producer of weekly The Lisa Benson Show for National Security that aired out of KKNT960 in Phoenix Arizona from 2013 to 2016. He is co-host and co-producer of the Middle East Round Table periodic series on 1330amWEBY, Northwest Florida Talk Radio, Pensacola, Florida.
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